The risks of normative science

The risks of normative science

Photo by Elevate on Unsplash

Scientists are expected to be objective. After all, we are highly trained sceptics using our curiosity to unpack the problem, ask the right questions, and find evidence for the best possible answer. 

This process of enquiry was honed over the generations into the scientific method. Our philosophy colleagues have mulled over and chewed to the point that most of them agree that the deductive method is our best approach to evidence. 

So when a scientist gives in to emotions, it’s intriguing, given we are trained not to. Right from the start scientists are told that emotions are rarely objective and our job is to be objective and deal only with evidence..

In a recent essay in response to Australia’s recent Black Summer of unprecedented wildfires, Joëlle Gergis decided to go against this principle. The fires that burnt through an estimated 18.6 million hectares (46 million acres; 186,000 square kilometres; 72,000 square miles) of mostly forest and open woodland were some of the biggest in recorded history. Fire destroyed over 5,900 buildings (including 2,779 homes) and killed at least 34 people. As we all lived through this event it was hard not to be emotionally affected.

Dr Gergis is an award-winning climate scientist and writer based at the Australian National University. She is a lead author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report and an expert advisor to the Climate Council. 

Here is a flavour of her essay

I’ve gained terrifying insight into the true state of the climate crisis and what lies ahead. There is so much heat already baked into the climate system that a certain level of destruction is now inevitable.

And then later…

Australia’s horror summer is the clearest signal yet that our planet’s climate is rapidly destabilising. It breaks my heart to watch the country I love irrevocably wounded because of our government’s denial of the severity of climate change and its refusal to act on the advice of the world’s leading scientists.

And her conclusion…

As a climate scientist at this troubled time in human history, my hope is that the life force of our Earth can hang on. That the personal and collective awakening we need to safeguard our planet arrives before even more is lost. That our hearts will lead us back to our shared humanity, strengthening our resolve to save ourselves and our imperilled world.

It’s an essay, a medium that allows a certain normative tone. What is interesting though is the level of emotion in the piece — the opinion and emotion that went into the writing show the author grieving for nature that she knew well, changing in front of her eyes. A terrifying insight indeed.

No matter that the dance of evolution on the planet has been continuous for three and a half billion years. Or that fire is just part of the choreography, an immediate disruption that is detrimental only to a certain worldview and, of course, open to projection and blame, towards politicians especially, for not preventing it. 

Part of me is disappointed in this kind of thinking. And part of me is empathic for her situation and why she would want to write such things. It would make her feel better to have communicated the truth from her soul, rather than what her profession would have her do, that is to present only the facts. 

It is unfair to be critical because in these challenging times we all need an outlet to process change that we couldn’t have seen coming. 

However, it is impossible to go back to the pre-industrial era and say “no, we won’t use coal and then no we won’t use oil”. At that point in human history those energy sources were a miracle. They fuelled the engine behind what everybody at the time wanted. And if you were living at that time, you’d want those things too. 

Industrial development eventually improved food security, job security, the opportunity to grow yourself and your family. The privilege of the wealthy for a long time did trickle down to the masses thanks to the cheap energy from coal and oil. 

Saying fossil fuel use was a bad decision is very easy in hindsight. But the counterfactual wouldn’t have happened. People at the time would have found another way and would have ended up with coal and oil anyway. Lamenting or criticizing the current for consequences that no one could have prevented is disingenuous but perhaps necessary in emotional responses. 

Maybe this was a good thing for this particular scientist. Express feelings in this way for a reset and then return to objectivity. 

But this begs two bigger questions. 

Can scientists be objective and ignore their emotional selves? 

Unlikely. Arguably an emotional response will kick in at some point no matter how objective we try to be with our day jobs. Scientists are people after all.

Is it a good thing to try and be objective? 

Perhaps the emotional response is a requirement to get the message across. If we fail to tap into our normative selves then the messages lack passion. To actually make a difference, people need to  believe the message. 

For me, it’s more about knowing that these two sides of us exist. The process is I think from the science through my emotions to an objective point of view. Compartments certainly but also to know when to mix them together. 

At times  objectivity must speak for itself without any emotive words. And at other times emotions must be out for a full account of feelings. And then there are important moments, perhaps the critical ones, when the two come together. When objectivity is fueled by emotion and feelings. 

In other words, scientists should use emotive words and let feelings and passions spill over to promote evidence. Embrace emotive capability to engage people with the evidence and then let the evidence speak for itself. 

This is a nirvana that many scientists would love to be in. We do feel deeply about many of the issues that we study. Otherwise we wouldn’t be interested in them in the first place. So to arrive at a situation with no emotion. No empathy for this for the consequences is unrealistic. 

But in these challenging times, the evidence must also speak for itself.


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How to do science with the naivety of youth

How to do science with the naivety of youth

Image by Alloporus

Back when I was a bushy-tailed research student, life was a breeze that flew by without a thought. 

It was a time of naivety disguised as the fearlessness of youth. 

There were times I had to make some decisions but, fortunately, most were trivial and few animals were harmed in the making of them. In my case, this was a quirk of the University ethics committee. They decided that the invertebrates that were the subject of my experiments were not animals.

My research that I imagined was significant, attempted to build evidence for the importance of competition for food in the population biology of woodlice. Yes, staggeringly important information destined to change the world order and make a fortune for its finder. 

Well no, neither was ever the intent, for all that I wanted at the time was to stay at University for as long as possible. It was such a cool place. 

I justified this want by claiming to myself that my motivation was part progress up the academic ladder and part avoidance of the real world. And to this day, a stroll through any university campus easily confirms the prevalence of the latter. There is a heap of real world denial in the ivory towers.

But I digress.

The point here is that woodlice are animals and they are important decomposers. 

As they consume dead leaves and other detritus, they recycle organic matter and make nutrients available to plants. They are members of an army of organisms we cannot live without. 

Model woodlice 

In my research, woodlice were model organisms used to test the ecological theory of density-dependent competition. It is as nerdy as it sounds. 

The idea is that competition for food is one of the mechanisms for natural selection that ecologists have tried to prove ever since Darwin first put a name to it. The recycling credentials of woodlice and their soil animal cousins I studied later. At the time of my research degree, I needed a way to test if woodlice compete for food to add some more evidence in support of evolutionary and ecological theory. 

To do this, I had to make a decision on how to manipulate the availability of food on the assumption that it was a limiting resource. If the assumption was correct, theory suggested there would be competition for high-quality food and the woodlice would respond through changes in their patterns of growth and reproduction.

One manipulation option was to exclude (that is to keep out) rabbit grazing from an area of our study site. Rabbits! Where did they come from? Even the ethics dons would say these were animals. In the chalky grasslands of eastern England where woodlice are abundant, rabbits are crucial to the supply of high-quality food to detritivores, the woodlice. 

Rabbit grazing alters the structure of the grassland. The attention of many thousands of cute bunnies grazing on the grasses keeps the coarse grasses from taking over. Grazing opens enough light and space for forbs and herbs to flourish. Exclude rabbits, and tough grasses soon dominate in a thicker, dense layer. Dead herbs are the preferred high-quality food of woodlice so when the rabbits are first removed there is a spike in the availability of high quality detritus. A bonanza for the woodlice. Later when the thicker grasses took over  the herb and forb food source was reduced, so, in theory, the woodlice would become food limited and compete with each other.

So a rabbit-proof fence was constructed around part of the habitat and, sure enough, the grasses grew at the expense of the herbs and forbs sending through the pulse of high quality woodlouse food from the dead herbs and forbs. The area of rabbit exclusion became the Weeting Heath exclosure experiment. The driver we wanted to control was excluded.

Ecological research often works this way. In order to understand one species, you have to change things up with another, apparently unrelated species.

But this was only part of the evidence needed to test the density-dependence hypothesis of food limitation. I was keen to find out what would happen if we increased the numbers of woodlice in habitat with rabbits. The assumption here was that crowding them out would force them to compete for food.

In the second experimental option, rabbits would crop the grass and maintain the supply of herbs, but there would be an artificially high number of woodlice. Would that make these small critters compete for high-quality food?

This experiment is different. 

It required an increase in woodlouse numbers. Such manipulation is not easy to do over large areas. So I decided to create enclosures to keep high numbers of woodlice together with woodlouse proof fences. The fences had to be low enough to let the rabbits in to graze down the grass, high enough to stop the woodlice escaping, and surround an area big enough for the woodlice to behave normally, more or less.

The fenced-in areas became the Weeting Heath enclosure experiment. Here is what it looked like. The rabbit-proof fence of the ‘exclosure’ is in the background.

Keeping things out (the exclosure) and keeping things in (the enclosure) was an obvious solution to an experimental manipulation conundrum — two different ways to manipulate the supply of high-quality food for a wild population of woodlice.  

And just to be sure in some of the enclosures I added extra high-quality woodlouse food in the form of ground up leaf litter from alder trees. They love that stuff and grow exceptionally well on it.

Here you can see the darker colour of the grass in one of the enclosures where the extra food was added.

What happened?

Here are two of the conclusions we published in the Journal of Animal Ecology

(5) When an experimental exclosure was erected which prevented rabbit grazing, the availability of high-quality foods increased. Isopods within the exclosure grew larger, became more fecund, and consequently increased in density.

(6) In isopod enclosures to which high-quality food was added, growth rates of isopods also increased. In other enclosures to which sub-adult A. vulgare were experimentally added,  growth rates of  new recruits decreased. 

Hassall, M., & Dangerfield, J. M. (1990). Density-dependent processes in the population dynamics of Armadillidium vulgare (Isopoda: Oniscidae). The Journal of Animal Ecology, 941-958.

In less jargonese, the woodlice were bigger, reproduced more and their numbers increased in the exclosure without rabbits. 

Adding food in the enclosure also got the woodlice to grow faster but they grew more slowly when they were crowded.

Amazing, just the confirmation bias we were looking for and here is how we summed it up in the journal article

We conclude that intra-specific competition is important in regulating the density of this population and that populations of this macro-decomposer are more likely to be regulated from ‘below’ by competing for limited food than from ‘above’ by natural enemies. The relaxation of competition at low densities with the consequent positive effects on natality rates provides an effective ‘floor’ which-reduces the probability of population extinctions.

This is all a little grandiose. It initially seemed remarkably that these animals are sensitive to food supply but as every organism is the idea seems trite. Proof of sorts was worthy of a formal statement.

What I learned from exclosures and enclosures

Ecology is a messy subject with many challenges to the principles behind the scientific method. Experiments are never easy and here will always be criticism of most attempts.

My woodlouse attempts at experimentation were pseudo replicated, failed to measure controlling variables (food availability in the exclosure) and needed a much long run of observations. Just three obvious criticisms.

But I learned a great deal about these innate complexities and the difficulties of real world experiments. That was, after all, one of the reasons to take on a research degree.

I also learned that the theory holds. Organisms can be food limited with consequences for their survival, growth, and reproduction. Homo sapiens take note.  

Mostly though I found that scratching intellectual itches is great fun and immensely satisfying, so much so that I have kept doing it to this day and am unlikely to stop until my faculties do.

What a blessing it is to have an enquiring mind.


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The shovel leaning workshop

The shovel leaning workshop

Photo by Stephen Philpott on Unsplash

Driving along a freeway the other day I passed some roadworks dutifully slowing down to the snails pace speed limit. By the side of the road was an excellent example of standing around. 

A worker was leaning up against a vehicle and it was clear that he’d been leaning for some time. He readjusted his ass and then sort of went back into an expert level hanging around position. 

It was quite remarkable.

My buddy Chris suggested this guy had certainly completed the ‘Hanging Around Workshop’ with a special session on shovel leaning, perhaps even the ‘Advanced No Shoveling’ diploma.

Chris then lamented the challenge he has as a small business owner to find folk who work at his pace. “If I could do all this work myself I would. You know I do twice as much work as anyone else.”

I’m good with slow if that is the best that a person can do. Slow and steady can win the race. If a person is steady and consistent then that is enough, unless they are on a checkout of course.

The shovel leaning is not the same. It’s avoidance of the work that needs done. Training done for that purpose.

I get it. 

Some work is tedious and any opportunity to take a break and have a yarn is taken whenever offered.

Some work is just physically demanding. It is not possible to shovel all day every day.

But some work just has to be done, ideally in the shortest time possible. Most workers could get their week’s work done in three normal length days.

There is a thing. Why not move to a three day week.

We would all be happier with the extra time off, the work would still get done and a heap of time would be saved on the shovel courses.

Except that we might not be happier even if the salary stayed the same. 

Much of that shovel leaning is to pass the time more pleasantly than the options offered back in the family home where there are noisy kids, chores and an irritable spouse. A guaranteed reason why many women find solace in the workplace.

Lockdown has produced the prospect of an epidemic of mental health issues in part due to restricted shovel leaning.

I always feel guilty when my own version of standing around, too many meaningless Youtube videos, and I’m back writing or reading some science publication before too long. However, retirement has been suggested. 

If I am to achieve that I will need to enroll in a few workshops.

Have a great day and a good lean.  


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Beating that feeling of inadequacy

Beating that feeling of inadequacy

Photo by Luismi Sánchez on Unsplash

We all have triggers, emotional buttons that people can push to set us off. 

Many relate to nasties locked away in our closet that we don’t want anyone to see. But something said or done eases open the door with a creek and lets out the monsters. Those nasty gremlins that play with our emotional balance and throw us off, sometimes into the abyss. 

One of my buttons is incompetence. 

Whenever I come across it I cringe and my equivalent of road rage takes over. I become angry and depressed at the same time. The older I get, even modest incompetence pulls the trigger. And when it’s really bad, I seem to come over in a massive funk that affects me for several days.

I have long been curious to know what relic in my past was setting off this frustration at people unable to do their job properly. 

An anecdote from my backstory might shed some light.

Hartlepool

When I was 10 years old my parents moved the family to the north of England from south London. The coastal town of Hartlepool famous for, well, famous for being a coastal town where they used to build ships.

I had to quickly learn a new dialect and a new accent so as not to sound like a complete southern ponce, a handy skill as it turned out. 

Young enough to still be in primary school, I was enrolled in the little brother of the local grammar school. I have no idea how my parents managed to get me in there. Probably their status as local preachers had something to do with it. The old firm clubbing together. 

At the time there was an exam that all 11-year-old schoolkids in England sat to decide whether they went to the posh grammar schools or the dodgy comprehensives. I took this ‘Eleven plus exam’ and, much to my astonishment, I passed and ended up at the grammar school proper. 

My feelings at the time were incompetence and inadequacy digging their heels in while surprise tried to lighten the mood. Passing an examination that, in my mind at least, I had no hope of getting through was a shock that I never really got over. I reconciled it as… inadequate I may be but I got through anyway

As it was, I remember very little about that grammar school other than that I couldn’t play rugby. After one outing I would never consider that crazy game again. Soccer, the pastime of the hooligan comprehensive set, was my thing. 

Within a year my parents were off again, back down south where I had to start all over again. This time at an even posher grammar school a short step down from the paid private schools.

I was instantly bottom of the class but it turns out that being bottom of those chosen to be at the top pulled up my academic socks. What it didn’t do was give me any confidence. That only happened when, again by some miracle of the universe, I made it to university.

Inadequacy begins at home

After many years of reflecting on childhood experiences, as you do, I figured my sense of inadequacy, and its related incompetence trigger, was inherited from my parent’s attitude to life. 

At home there was never enough money and whatever there was had to stretch to cover all contingencies. My parents did remarkably well. Whilst we never went to restaurants or cafes or own a car and some of the smaller things in life were hard to come by, there was always food on the table and uniforms to wear to school and all the elements to make it look normal. 

What wasn’t quite so normal was the lack of confidence in the household. A giving to religion sucked up all the energy in the room, all day every day. The church took control over our lives and made all the major decisions. The lord provided and took any sense of self in return. 

And for me, that translated to feelings of inadequacy in myself but also in my folks. It became a trigger that persists to this day nearly 50 years on. When I see people performing poorly I rail at myself while smiling politely. Later I will fall into a funk brim full of cynicism and negativity.

I’ve often thought of how to come out of such a malaise, I mean people are people. The world over there are folk who are good, and not so good at what they do. It’s a law of nature – the raw material that allows diversity to exist. Without variety, there’d be nothing to choose from in the next generation. And I think that’s part of the story too. This idea that everyone needs to be good at something to persist into the next generation, to deliver on their genetic promise.  

Even though I can accept the logic of averages, when I see people who are not very good at something or bluster their way through without the skills and all they are is below average, I’m disconcerted. 

Often it’s not that they’re poor at a task or lack certain skills. I think it’s the realisation that so many know that they’re not so good but have no desire to get better. 

Beating inadequacy

My response to childhood feelings of inadequacy was to become self-sufficient. 

I learned to knuckle down and do what I could and worked at that self sufficiency by doing what was in my control. 

This resulted in a narrow zone of confidence and a certain naivety about how the world really works but I felt adequate some of the time. As it turned out the academic sphere likes this kind of narrow focus and I carved a career in science despite being bottom of the class for all those years. 

Even now I have to remind myself that I am good enough. I can do a lot of things and I just have to choose well among the many things that interest me. Those that are appropriate to be doing at the time. And focus on those and be comfortable. 

It doesn’t stop the triggers. 

Rationalization cannot protect against an innate emotional response. It also doesn’t make ineptitude a good thing or even an acceptable response. We should all be striving to be the best we possibly can be. 

We won’t all be tall poppies. But if everyone is striving to grow, the true tall poppies would be even better than they are now. 

In these ever more complex and challenging times, humanity must tap into its skill base to extend itself. And that means individuals not accepting inadequacy and not accepting incompetence, but promoting quality, wherever we can find it.

Maybe this is the best way to beat inadequacy, to embrace the best, grow the tall poppies and try to catch up with them. 


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Does it matter if online information is true or false?

Does it matter if online information is true or false?

Photo by Josh Marshall on Unsplash

Nowt as queer as folk

This north of England expression, although probably also Welsh, is said to emphasize that people sometimes behave in a very strange way. 

No kidding. 

We were bonkers before lockdown and now, well, just check out all the fails on Youtube. 

Yes ma’am, there is a battery in the car, not just the one in the key fob’.

Our blissful ignorance is so complete that it is a miracle that we figured out how to make a car in the first place.

Thanks in large part to this capacity to be ignorant, there is another famous quote first attributed to Mark Twain in his 1897 travel book titled “Following the Equator: A Journey Around the World” where in chapter 15 he writes 

Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t.

Pudd’nhead Wilson’s New Calendar

Pudd’nhead Wilson was the name of a fictional character in a novel Twain published a few years before the travel book. 

However, in 1823 Lord Byron published several cantos of his epic satirical poem “Don Juan” wherein the one-hundredth stanza of canto 14 included the lines 

‘Tis strange—but true; for truth is always strange,

Stranger than fiction: if it could be told,

How much would novels gain by the exchange!

How differently the world would men behold!

So we have known for a long time that people are the source of much craziness, more even than can be conjured in the imagination of great writers of fiction.

And nothing has changed. 

We are as mad today as ever and it looks worse for our attention span is that of a gnat. 

We are only interested in the bizarre or peculiar or some poor bugger falling off his skateboard onto his gonads. 

Then, of course, we believe everything we hear or see, especially online. 

Our common sense left the building with Elvis and no matter how unlikely the scene it must be true given that truth is always strange, stranger than fiction.

Does it matter? 

If we are entertained and no animals were harmed in the making of the film, then presumably it doesn’t matter. 

We can be entertained by fact or fiction in equal measure. The important thing is that we enjoy it so that we click the like button. 

Of course, if there is contention or opinion involved then we are in, for human beings are addicted to drama. Just a brief look into any family will tell you that. And we are much more likely to want to argue with each other than we are to agree. Just for the pleasure of something to argue about. 

This requirement for entertainment and drama has fuelled a whole industry that in its modern form is open to anyone with a smartphone and some botox or the aforementioned skateboard. 

Ask an evolutionary biologist about this phenomenon and she would say…

“Sure, makes perfect sense. We are designed to notice the unusual because that gave us an advantage in finding food and water. Our curiosity also helped us develop smart ideas and solutions to no end of problems back before agriculture. Youtube is an obvious extension of that instinct”

Ok then, that is interesting. 

It means it is instinct to like boat ramp fails and crazy Russians overtaking at 120 kph on an ice-bound road.

It is also ok if the clip is true or made up? I’m still just following instinct.

“Well yes,” says the biologist, “only along with the curiosity and eye for the unusual goes the ability to test. No point in picking out a purple fruit if it is going to give you stomach cramps. We added the ability to understand if unusual was useful. We learned how to understand if what we had seen was of any use to us.” 

Ah, so the unusual is put into context. That makes sense. 

Presumably, the truth matters now in order to establish the context. What might start off as amusing because it was different or odd becomes the subject of investigation in case there is something in it for us, an opportunity perhaps. 

If the truth is that there is nothing, it is actually just an idiot on a skateboard with more bravado than skill, then the laugh is enough. No problem, move on with a chuckle.

Russians killing themselves and innocents is more serious, especially if you live there.

Our biologist again. 

“What should happen is that we make an instinctive call as to how much attention to pay and when to engage in finding out more. We learn when to let curiosity be added to what we already know to explore the odd coloured fruit. There is a knowledge base we tap into and add to that keeps us safe.”

This seeking knowledge is critical. 

Around the world, people have lost sight of what actually made us humans in the first place, this ability to understand unusual things and put them into context. 

Current knowledge per individual is remarkably weak. 

Most people seem completely unaware of the realities of how life works. What delivers things to their doorstep how it comes about and the consequences of decisions that they make. 

Disengagement with the truth of matters is a problem. But not the only one .

Growing inabilities 

Inability to discern truth from fact. 

Inability to pay attention to anything other than what will fuel our need for drama or amusement. 

Inability to stay with something that requires more than 15 seconds of attention. 

Inability to give something some serious thought. 

It is time to do something about these inabilities because they play into the hands of people wanting authoritarian power rather than anything to do with our best interest. This is where the truth matters. When the democratic process is undermined. 

We still need to eat the odd coloured fruit and celebrate the wonderful weirdness of folk. 


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