What does 2 billion look like?
A two followed by many zeros. It’s big.
This number of standard sized washing machines would fill over 8 million 40 ft shipping containers, roughly equivalent to the total capacity of the global fleet of container ships.
And before the next generation of youngsters get over their binge drinking obsession, there will be 2 billion dishwashers on earth saving teenagers from Cincinnati to Conakry the indignity of doing the washing up.
Quite the improvement considering that running water only entered the majority of homes after the industrial revolution.
Here is what Alloporus said about washing machines in June 2011…
The number of people with the economic ability to purchase a dishwasher will double to more than 2 billion in the next 30-40 years.
Far more will rise above what Swedish statistician Professor Hans Rosling calls the ‘washing line’; an income of US$40 per day, the threshold necessary to own and run a washing machine.
On the one hand this is a worry.
Energy is needed to manufacture and power all these devices as is a water supply to allow them to function. Policy efforts on climate change notwithstanding, the cheapest power still comes from fossil fuels. It is why China is building coal-fired power stations even as they diversify into alternative fuels because they will need the energy to run all the new white goods.
On the other hand, sales of consumer goods will drive economic growth.
This is good news for those who require GDP growth, the enshrined dogma of political success. Nothing will prevent families from buying a washing machine if they can afford it, nor indeed, airplane tickets, dishwashers and cars as their wealth allows.
Couple this inevitable growth in buying power with ever more people and the growth paradigm has never looked better.
Hans Rosling has a very clever way of explaining the population and economic growth combination using Ikea boxes
It is the economic transition that is integral to the population one.
Without economic growth it is harder to see population growth slowing and eventually contracting. Children must consistently outlive their parents for this to happen and that means needs must be met and standards of living must rise.
It seems that we have not fully embraced this reality.
No amount of environmental concern, moral imperative to preserve resources or even fear of environmental collapse is likely to trump the imperative to improve things for our families.
For this is an expression of self-preservation that is hard wired?
There is a reason that Rosling’s Ikea box video has appeared several times on this blog.
It is the best and most accessible explanation of what will happen to the human population of this planet under business as usual. It is also the most likely outcome baring collapse.
But that number, 2,000,000,000 remains hard to fathom.
When the number refers to washing machines an armada like no other is needed to move them to a point of sale. There is such a global fleet and it is ploughing the waves right now heavily laden.