Alloporus is looking into online courses. I know, once a student, always a student is a nasty affliction.
It is fascinating to see how this format has evolved given that back in the day, that being the late 1990’s when I first built a website for my undergraduate students at Macquarie University, it was a struggle just to code a homepage. How I would have swooned over today’s functionality back then. Uploading self-made videos to cloud platforms with real-time chat, get outta here. I guess that just makes me old.
Anyway, please excuse my reminiscences and get us up to date to an online course from the excellent and free MOOC edX.org entitled “Feeding a Hungry Planet: Agriculture, Nutrition and Sustainability”.
It is fascinating and, I have to say, scary stuff.
Early in the proceedings Professor Achim Dobermann who is Director and CEO of Rothamsted Research UK, the oldest continually operating agricultural research station in the world, gives a 12-minute presentation on the risks associated with agriculture to 2050 should the world follow current business-as-usual for food production.
It is a courageous and smart summary of what global food and nutrition will be like for the next 30 years.
Here are a couple of headline numbers for what is required.
Global per capita meat consumption will rise from 40 to 50 kg per annum that will mean an additional 180 million tons of livestock production or 64% more than today.
Grain consumption per person will rise too and overall grain production will need to increase 1.1 billion tons or 52% more than today, in part to feed the extra animals.
My take is that agricultural and social science is telling us that food supply has to grow at an average of 2% per annum each and every year for over a generation. In short, another Green Revolution.
Such a change to business-as-usual will mean a plethora of production and consumption efficiency gains along the whole supply chain, innovation everywhere, and some nimble policy.
You can see Professor Dobermann’s full presentation here.
These numbers and their consequences present any number of risks to getting a second Green Revolution underway. Here are a few off the top of my head…
- not enough land for agriculture
- not enough usable water to increase yields
- soil degradation, especially ongoing loss of soil carbon
- peak fertilizer, especially micro-nutrients
- pests and disease, especially of core crops
- climate change
These are some of the obvious food production end risks, but once we get to the people part there are many more…
- resistance to agricultural innovation
- rapid changes to diet
- food waste
And then there are the food supply chains themselves that these days are long and involve many parties each claiming a clip. This evens out supply by moving seasonal produce around and feeding the people now congregated in cities — 55% of the total according to the UN. In other words, we would be lost without them.
But long can be brittle, inefficient with losses at each stage and, thanks to the many parties and their clip, raises the price of food; all factors that reduce food security.
On the upside, mass transport and production efficiency has reduced the global agricultural price index over the last century which is a good thing for most consumers; only it has also lowered the farm gate price. This is not so good.
It means that many farmers must push their production rather than nurture it. When the price squeeze happens at the farm gate they must mine their natural capital to keep their business alive instead of investing returns into efficiencies and soil inputs.
Whilst the level of risk and demand growth is scary, at least they are known. The big picture is clear enough.
In addition, we already have a thousand solutions to reduce or mitigate risks from biochar to farmers co-ops to Meatless Monday. We can and should use all of them as and where they make sense because 2% efficiency gains across the board each and every year for 30 years is a massive challenge with unfathomable complexity.
Also, being a bit scared is a good thing. It is a powerful motivator to do something positive.
Endnote on awareness
We have to avoid the single focus solutions.
One of the latest is the trillion trees idea — to save the world from climate change we need to plant a trillion trees.
Good idea if you are worried about greenhouse gas emissions given that trees sequester CO2 into woody biomass that can persist for a long time in the landscape. So yes, we should plant, nurture and grow trees and we should resist cutting any trees down.
Only we have to be very careful where we do it.
We can’t put tree planting on the lists of risks to the 2% per annum of food production growth.